Rabobank economists expect house prices to fall by 3.1%. Due to the ongoing increase in mortgage interest rates, the Dutch housing market is cooling down quicker than expected.
The mortgage interest rates are rising at an even faster pace than expected, which is why Rabobank are lowering their expectations for house prices and sales. House prices this year are expected to be 13.7% higher than in 2021, however, prices will fall by 3.1% in 203 and 2% in 2024. By the end of 2024, prices are expected to be 7.4% lower than they currently are. This would roughly correspond to the levels from Q1 of 2021.
Due to the fact that homeowners pay off more often, and due to the sharp increase in house prices in recent years, homeowners have built up a lot of equity. As a result, they will agree quicker to a lower price sale. Rabobank therefore expects only a limited decrease in the number of home sales, from 188,000 in 2022 to around 179,000 in 2023. It is estimated that this will recover to 184,000 transactions in 2024.
7 november 2022
The global financial developments are also affecting the Dutch housing market: this week, interest rates hit the 4% mark. The rise seems to be the highest for short-term loans, with increases of 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point at a time. This is unusual, as short-term and medium-term interest rates are usually lower than long-term rates.
In July and August, there was still a small decrease in mortgage interest rates, but this is now no longer the case. The increases are caused by recent developments on the capital market, such as the large interest rate hikes by the Fed and ECB. Developments of the rates on the capital market often serve as an indicator for the mortgage interest rates.
As medium-term mortgage rates (5 and 10 years fixed) are rising faster than long-term mortgage rates (20 and 30 years fixed), the difference between the two is becoming smaller and smaller. If the short-term rates were to rise above long-term rates, this would indicate an impending recession: lenders foresee more risk in the short term than in the long term, which is why they charge a higher rate for short-term loans.
Source: Real Estate News
September 29, 2022
The housing market seems to be cooling down further. The number of existing homes currently for sale has increased by no less than 67 percent. However, sales are lagging behind, Funda indicates.
Makelaarsland sees that the number of viewings continues to fall in the past 5 months. In the same period last year, there were on average 13.1 viewings per home. That is considerably more than now. Currently, the counter stands at 7.8 percent. In addition, the number of bids per home has also fallen by an average of 4.6 per home.
It is also concluded that there is also less outbid. The record was still at a record high in June 2021. Makelaarsland sees that almost one in three houses are sold at or below the asking price. If there is overbidding, the difference is less than the asking price.
June 8, 2022
From 1 May, the property value may count for less towards the amount of rent. It may then only be taken along for a maximum of 33 percent, according to Minister de Jonge for Housing and Spatial Planning. In this way, the government wants to keep rents within limits in certain countries with a large housing shortage.
The municipalities use the WOZ value (property value) to determine the value of homes. When there is a shortage in areas, the rents are so high that many people find houses unaffordable.
With these measures, social rent would remain as it is, says de Jonge. to make low-income families more likely to have affordable housing.
It would be about 23,000 homes that will remain available, including for social rent.
According to ABN Amro, prices on the housing market will rise again this year by no less than 12.5 percent. Low interest rates, tight labor market and the limited supply on the housing market are pushing prices up further.
The bank expects prices to rise by 5 percent next year. Low interest rates are the main reason for the huge prices. According to an economist from the Economic Bureau, prices will not fall but can only rise.
Low interest rates mean that people can borrow money very cheaply to buy a house. As a result, people quickly start looking for a house. The bank does expect, because it has been taking so long, that the effect of this will be less this year.
In addition, there is still a shortage in the labor market. There is a staff shortage in various sectors, which means that people who start a new job have a good negotiating position about their salary. More pay means being able to offer more.
Source: RTL News
January 7, 2022
In the third quarter of this year, the average price for square meters increased again by 2.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Of course, Amsterdam still remains the most expensive city to rent a home. Prices there rose by 1.6 percent in the past quarter. On average, new tenants paid 22.44 euros per square meter per month. These numbers come from the monitor.
After four quarters, there is again a price increase. In the third quarter of 2020, rents in the free sector fell for the first time in six years. This was mainly due to the fact that the expats stayed away because of the coronavirus. It was less easy to rent out houses that had become vacant. To prevent vacancy, the houses are priced more attractively.
The expat market is now fully operational again. The wider range of short stay options has disappeared because expats are flocking to the Netherlands again. This is accompanied by recent price increases.
Source: Vastgoed Actueel (Translated)
October 14, 2021
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