Research by the CBS and Kadaster has shown that in February, home prices were cheaper than in 2022. House prices fell by 0.8% compared to February of the previous year. This is the first time in nine years that house prices have shown a decrease. Since August 2022, the price index of existing homes has been almost continuously declining. Furthermore, the number of transactions has also decreased, by 15.5% compared to the same period last year.
In January, there was still a slight price increase of 1.5% compared to December 2022. The number of housing transactions was also slightly higher than in February. However, Rabobank and ABN Amro predict that prices will continue to decline this year, before stabilizing from next year onwards. The housing market is currently influenced by various factors, including the economic consequences of the corona pandemic and changes in mortgage interest rates. This can affect the demand for homes and thus the house prices.
Source: CBS and Kadaster
In the third quarter of 2022, the number of new homes sold fell significantly compared to the same period in 2021. This marked the biggest drop since 2015, with a total of 5,000 new homes sold. That is 33.9% less than the previous year.
The sale of existing homes fell by 6.4% in the third quarter of 2022, according to recent figures from Statistics Netherlands and Kadaster. This is a smaller percentage than in the second quarter, when sales were 10.2% lower than a year earlier. In total, 9.9% fewer homes were sold. This trend - fewer sales than the year before - has now been registered for six quarters in a row.
New-build prices increased on average by 13.7% compared to the previous year and reached an average sales price of 474,000 euros. This is lower than the previous quarter, when it exceeded 500,000 euros for the first time. The price of an existing owner-occupied home increased by an average of 11.9%.
Rabobank economists expect house prices to fall by 3.1%. Due to the ongoing increase in mortgage interest rates, the Dutch housing market is cooling down quicker than expected.
The mortgage interest rates are rising at an even faster pace than expected, which is why Rabobank are lowering their expectations for house prices and sales. House prices this year are expected to be 13.7% higher than in 2021, however, prices will fall by 3.1% in 203 and 2% in 2024. By the end of 2024, prices are expected to be 7.4% lower than they currently are. This would roughly correspond to the levels from Q1 of 2021.
Due to the fact that homeowners pay off more often, and due to the sharp increase in house prices in recent years, homeowners have built up a lot of equity. As a result, they will agree quicker to a lower price sale. Rabobank therefore expects only a limited decrease in the number of home sales, from 188,000 in 2022 to around 179,000 in 2023. It is estimated that this will recover to 184,000 transactions in 2024.
7 november 2022
The global financial developments are also affecting the Dutch housing market: this week, interest rates hit the 4% mark. The rise seems to be the highest for short-term loans, with increases of 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point at a time. This is unusual, as short-term and medium-term interest rates are usually lower than long-term rates.
In July and August, there was still a small decrease in mortgage interest rates, but this is now no longer the case. The increases are caused by recent developments on the capital market, such as the large interest rate hikes by the Fed and ECB. Developments of the rates on the capital market often serve as an indicator for the mortgage interest rates.
As medium-term mortgage rates (5 and 10 years fixed) are rising faster than long-term mortgage rates (20 and 30 years fixed), the difference between the two is becoming smaller and smaller. If the short-term rates were to rise above long-term rates, this would indicate an impending recession: lenders foresee more risk in the short term than in the long term, which is why they charge a higher rate for short-term loans.
Source: Real Estate News
September 29, 2022
The housing market seems to be cooling down further. The number of existing homes currently for sale has increased by no less than 67 percent. However, sales are lagging behind, Funda indicates.
Makelaarsland sees that the number of viewings continues to fall in the past 5 months. In the same period last year, there were on average 13.1 viewings per home. That is considerably more than now. Currently, the counter stands at 7.8 percent. In addition, the number of bids per home has also fallen by an average of 4.6 per home.
It is also concluded that there is also less outbid. The record was still at a record high in June 2021. Makelaarsland sees that almost one in three houses are sold at or below the asking price. If there is overbidding, the difference is less than the asking price.
June 8, 2022
From 1 May, the property value may count for less towards the amount of rent. It may then only be taken along for a maximum of 33 percent, according to Minister de Jonge for Housing and Spatial Planning. In this way, the government wants to keep rents within limits in certain countries with a large housing shortage.
The municipalities use the WOZ value (property value) to determine the value of homes. When there is a shortage in areas, the rents are so high that many people find houses unaffordable.
With these measures, social rent would remain as it is, says de Jonge. to make low-income families more likely to have affordable housing.
It would be about 23,000 homes that will remain available, including for social rent.
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